Gordon Smith

Jeff Merkley appears likely to defeat Gordon Smith in Oregon’s tight U.S. Senate race.

With an estimated three quarters of the vote counted at 8:18 pm, Merkley had come from behind for a 0.5 percentage point lead of 8,270 votes.

With late counted returns in Lane and Multnomah counties heavily favoring Merkley, it appears mathematically unlikely that Smith could make up the deficit.

At 7:33 pm, the Oregonian projected a Merkley victory. Smith has not conceded.

State law triggers an automatic recount if the margin is less that 0.2 percent.

Depending on whose numbers you’re looking at, either Smith or Merkley are leading as U.S. Senate election results trickle in Wednesday afternoon. Just after 4:15 pm, The Oregonian’s www.oregonlive.com has Merkley ahead of Smith by 3,446 votes. But the unofficial tally at 4:30 pm on the Oregon Secretary of State website http://egov.sos.state.or.us has Smith ahead by 5,760 votes.

We won’t know the results until Wednesday night or even Thursday, but it’s interesting to see that The Oregonian and the state apparently are getting their numbers independently. The likely cause of Merkley rise is late returns from left-leaning Multnomah County.

At 11:39 am, Gordon Smith lead Democrat Jeff Merkley 47.5 percent to 46.7 percent in the squeaker U.S. Senate race.

But late voting in Lane and Multnomah counties could mathematically push Merkley to a narrow victory, assuming current voting trends in the two counties and the rest of the state continue.

An EW analysis calculates that Merkley could end up with an estimated 48.4 percent of the total vote when all ballots are counted. Assuming percentages for a third party candidate and write-ins remain the same, that could mean a narrow Merkley victory over Smith.

Almost half the votes in Lane and Multnomah counties remain to be counted. The two urban counties hold a big chunk of the state’s Democrats, and vote counting there has lagged behind the rest of the state.

A big uncertainty is whether Constitution Party Candidate Dave Brownlow will continue to pull votes from Smith at the same statewide rate in the two counties.

I'm pretty sure this isn't the first time the New York Times has noted Republican Senator Gordon Smith's cozying up to the Dems for votes, with Smith stopping just short of endorsing his own Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, but what's interesting is the timing of the piece, and its placement on the front page (!) of the NYT website. Also, the article points out something I didn't know: "David Brownlow of the conservative Constitution Party, has registered in the high single digits in some recent polls ... [which is] likely to hurt Mr. Smith the most." Go Brownlow!!!

If you're sick of Smith's charade, donate here.

With laughably incoherent interviews and a finding Sarah Palin abused her power against a state trooper, many Republicans are regretting John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as Vice President. But not Oregon Senator Gordon Smith. Here he is in an Oct. 9 debate:

In the pivotal, tight race in Oregon for U.S. Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley has gone after Republican Gordon Smith for voting for George Bush's Wall Street bailout.

Here's a new Merkeley ad: